Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between Astralis and Legacy in the IEM Atlanta Group B, initially scheduled for May 12 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win the match against Legacy. This market will resolve to "Legacy" if Legacy win the match against Astralis. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Astralis and Legacy will contest an Upper bracket semifinal match in the IEM Atlanta Group B Counter-Strike tournament on 12 May at 7:00PM ET, playing a best-of-three series. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 49% implied probability for Astralis victory, indicating near-parity between the two sides from the perspective of active traders. This even split suggests meaningful uncertainty about the outcome, with neither team commanding clear consensus backing at present.
Astralis enters as a historically stronger franchise with multiple Major titles and consistent top-tier finishes, whilst Legacy represents a rising South American roster that has gained prominence in recent seasons. The current probability weighting reflects this relative pedigree but acknowledges Legacy's improved competitive standing. Recent Counter-Strike tournaments have demonstrated that regional underdogs can perform at tier-one events when conditions align, though Astralis' experience in high-pressure bracket play typically favours the Danish organisation.
Traders should monitor team roster confirmations and any last-minute schedule adjustments from ESL ahead of the settlement window closing on 13 May at 05:00 UTC. Fixture delays beyond seven days from the scheduled date trigger a 50-50 resolution. Pre-match analysis from esports betting outlets and team announcements regarding player availability will likely shift the order book in the days immediately preceding the match, as additional information surfaces regarding preparation status and recent form.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11K in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $11K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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