Trade: Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty League Major 3 Group D
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Call of Duty match between Riyadh Falcons and Cloud9 New York in the Call of Duty League Major 3 Group D, initially scheduled for May 15 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Riyadh Falcons" if Riyadh Falcons win the match against Cloud9 New York. This market will resolve to "Cloud9 New York" if Cloud9 New York win the match against Riyadh Falcons. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $4K
- Total Volume
- $248
- 24h Volume
- $248
- Open Interest
- $248
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 87% YES | 14% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Game 3 Winner | 82% YES | 18% NO |
| Game 4 Winner | 77% YES | 24% NO |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Game Handicap: RIYF (-1.5) vs Cloud9 New York (+1.5) | 52% YES | 49% NO |
Market context
Riyadh Falcons face Cloud9 New York in a best-of-five Call of Duty League match during Major 3 Group D play, scheduled for 15 May at 1:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability favouring Riyadh Falcons, indicating strong market confidence in the Saudi-based franchise's victory. This probability has formed through active trading across the platform's liquidity pools, with the YES side commanding substantial backing relative to the NO position.
Riyadh Falcons have established themselves as a top-tier competitive outfit in the CDL, whilst Cloud9 New York has faced inconsistency throughout the 2024 season. Historical matchups between established franchises and mid-tier competitors in best-of-five formats typically see the favoured team prevail 75–85% of the time, though upsets remain possible in esports where individual player performance and map selection create volatility. The 92% probability sits at the upper end of this range, suggesting the market views this as a clear stylistic mismatch.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes ahead of the scheduled start time, as substitutions can materially shift competitive balance. Technical delays or broadcast issues could trigger the 7-day cancellation clause, though CDL matches rarely experience extended postponements. Recent CDL standings and scrim results posted on esports news outlets in the days preceding 15 May will provide concrete form data. The settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC on the scheduled date, allowing time for match completion and official result confirmation.
Wikipedia Context
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Call of Duty
Call of Duty (CoD) is a first-person shooter military video game series and media franchise published by Activision, starting in 2003. The games were first developed by Infinity Ward, then by Treyarch and Sledgehammer Games. Several spin-off and handheld games were made by other developers. The most recent, Call of Duty: Black Ops 7, was released on November
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Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 is a 2009 first-person shooter game developed by Infinity Ward and published by Activision. It is the sixth installment in the Call of Duty series and the direct sequel to Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare. It was released worldwide on November 10, 2009, for Windows, PlayStation 3, and Xbox 360. A separate version for the Nintendo
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Call of Duty 4: Modern WarfareCall of Duty 4: Modern Warfare is a 2007 first-person shooter game developed by Infinity Ward and published by Activision. It is the fourth main installment in the Call of Duty series. The game breaks away from the World War II setting of previous entries and is instead set in modern times. Developed over two years, Modern Warfare was released in November 20
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Call of Duty: Black Ops IICall of Duty: Black Ops II is a 2012 first-person shooter game developed by Treyarch and published by Activision. It was released for Windows, PlayStation 3, and Xbox 360 on November 13, 2012, and for the Wii U on November 18 in North America and November 30 in PAL regions. Black Ops II is the ninth game in the Call of Duty franchise of video games, a sequel
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/callofduty_esports. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty League Major 3 Group D" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$248 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $248 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/callofduty_esports. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty League Major 3 Group D"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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