Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on May 31, 2026.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 472 - 475k | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| 478 - 481k | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| 484 - 487k | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| >492k | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| <472k | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| 475 - 478k | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| 481 - 484k | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| 487 - 492k | 14% YES | 87% NO |
The Austin metropolitan area's median home value on 31 May 2026 will be determined by Parcl Labs' Sales Price Index, converted to absolute value by multiplying the price-per-square-foot index by 2,100 square feet. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 8% probability, suggesting traders expect the median to fall outside the specific bracket this market references. Austin's housing market has experienced significant volatility since 2020, with median values climbing from approximately $425,000 to peaks near $650,000 in 2022 before moderating. The city's tech-driven economy and continued population inflows have historically supported valuations above the national average, though recent interest-rate cycles and affordability constraints have introduced downward pressure.
Traders should monitor quarterly housing data releases from Parcl Labs, which typically publish sales indices with a lag of several weeks. Federal Reserve policy decisions through early 2026 will materially influence mortgage rates and buyer demand. Recent reports from the Austin Board of Realtors indicate inventory levels remain constrained relative to pre-pandemic norms, a structural factor that could support price floors. Additionally, any significant employment disruptions in Austin's technology sector—where companies including Tesla, Oracle, and Apple maintain substantial operations—could shift migration patterns and demand fundamentals. The resolution depends entirely on Parcl's published data quality and methodology consistency, making the index's historical accuracy relevant to assessing settlement risk.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$83 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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