Trade: South Korea Annual Inflation 2026
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Korea in the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the South Korean Ministry of Data and Statistics (MODS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1K
- Total Volume
- $11K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $475
Market outcomes
| <1.5% | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| 1.5% to 1.7% | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| 1.8% to 2.0% | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| 2.1% to 2.3% | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| 2.4% to 2.6% | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| 2.7% to 2.9% | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| 3.0%+ | 28% YES | 73% NO |
Market context
South Korea's year-on-year consumer price inflation rate for December 2026 will determine this market's resolution. The Ministry of Data and Statistics releases monthly CPI data with a lag of roughly two weeks, meaning the December 2026 figure will be available in early January 2027. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 6% probability that annual inflation will exceed the threshold specified in the full market terms—a notably low probability suggesting traders expect price growth to remain subdued or within a narrow band.
South Korea's inflation trajectory has been volatile since 2021. The country experienced peaks above 6% in 2022–2023 following global supply shocks, but the Bank of Korea's successive rate hikes brought headline inflation below 2% by mid-2024. Historical precedent shows Korean inflation is sensitive to energy prices, won exchange rates, and food costs, particularly given the country's import dependence. If 2026 inflation remains anchored near the central bank's 2% target—as current monetary policy settings suggest—the low implied probability reflects reasonable baseline expectations.
Key catalysts include the Bank of Korea's policy decisions throughout 2026, particularly any shifts in its rate-setting trajectory. Geopolitical tensions affecting energy markets, movements in the Korean won against the US dollar, and global supply chain disruptions could push inflation higher. Traders should monitor the Bank's quarterly inflation outlooks and any revisions to growth forecasts, as these typically precede meaningful policy adjustments. Recent commodity price movements and domestic wage negotiations in major sectors will also influence the inflation outcome.
Wikipedia Context
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South KoreaSouth Korea, officially the Republic of Korea (ROK), is a country in East Asia. It constitutes the southern half of the Korean Peninsula and borders North Korea along the Korean Demilitarized Zone, with the Yellow Sea to the west and the Sea of Japan to the east. South Korea claims to be the sole legitimate government of the entire peninsula and adjacent isl
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2024 South Korean martial law crisisIn 2024, a political crisis took place in South Korea, triggered by a declaration of martial law by President Yoon Suk Yeol. On 3 December 2024, at 22:27 Korea Standard Time (KST), Yoon, the then-president of South Korea, announced the imposition of martial law during a televised address. In his speech, he accused the Democratic Party (DPK), which held a maj
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South Korean wonThe South Korean won, sometimes known as the Republic of Korea won, is the official currency of South Korea. The won is technically equal to 100 jeon, but the jeon is no longer used for everyday transactions and appears only in foreign exchange rates. The currency is issued by the Bank of Korea, based in the capital city of Seoul. The South Korean won was fi
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South Korea–United States relationsDiplomatic relations between South Korea and the United States commenced in 1949. The United States helped establish the modern state of South Korea, officially the Republic of Korea, and fought on its UN-sponsored side in the Korean War (1950–1953). During the subsequent decades, South Korea experienced tremendous economic, political and military growth. To
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "South Korea Annual Inflation 2026" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$11K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "South Korea Annual Inflation 2026"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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