Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the May data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111). The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The May release is presently scheduled for June 10, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $1.75–$2.00 | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| $2.75–$3.00 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| <$1.50 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| $2.25–$2.50 | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| $3.25–$3.50 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| $1.50–$1.75 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| $2.50–$2.75 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| ≥$3.50 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish May 2026 egg price data on 10 June 2026, with the St. Louis Fed updating its series shortly thereafter. The market resolves based on which price bracket the Grade A, Large dozen-egg average falls into, with current Polymarket order book activity implying just a 10% probability of the YES outcome. This settlement mechanism ties directly to official CPI data, removing discretionary interpretation from resolution.
Egg prices have exhibited substantial volatility over the past three years, driven by avian influenza cycles, feed costs, and production capacity constraints. The December 2022 spike saw prices exceed $4 per dozen in some regions before normalising through 2023 and 2024. Historical precedent suggests that unless a significant supply shock emerges between now and May data collection, prices tend to stabilise within established ranges. The current 10% implied probability reflects trader expectations that May prices will fall outside a particular bracket—likely a higher one—suggesting the crowd anticipates either moderating prices or continued stability rather than another inflationary episode.
Traders should monitor avian influenza reports from the USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, which typically drive short-term price movements. Feed commodity futures, particularly corn and soybean meal, also influence production economics. The BLS release schedule itself is fixed, but any unexpected supply disruptions in the months preceding May could shift probabilities materially. Current market positioning suggests limited conviction around extreme price movements in either direction.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Price of Dozen Eggs in May?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$733 in lifetime turnover and $37K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $637 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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