Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 3.50% to 3.99% | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| <2.50% | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 4.50% to 4.99% | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| 2.50% to 2.99% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 5.00% to 5.49% | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| 3.00% to 3.49% | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| 4.00% to 4.49% | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| 5.50%+ | 28% YES | 72% NO |
Mexico's annual inflation rate for December 2026 will be determined by the year-on-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index as published by INEGI in early 2027. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 8% probability, reflecting market expectations that inflation will remain within Banco de México's target range of 2–4% or moderately above it rather than spiking to elevated levels.
Mexico's inflation trajectory has been volatile over the past three years. After peaking above 8% in late 2022, the rate declined steadily through 2023 and 2024, settling closer to 4–5% by mid-2025. Historical precedent suggests that once inflation begins moderating from elevated peaks, it typically stabilises within or near central bank targets within 18–24 months. The 8% probability assigned to this market implies traders expect December 2026 inflation to fall outside a narrow band—either substantially below 2% or above 4%—a scenario that would require either significant disinflationary pressure or a major shock to energy or currency markets.
Key catalysts through 2026 include Banco de México's monetary policy decisions, which will shape borrowing costs and demand; peso exchange rate movements, which directly affect import prices; and global oil price dynamics, given Mexico's energy sector exposure. Wage growth negotiations and fiscal policy announcements will also influence underlying price pressures. Any major depreciation of the peso or sustained oil price surge could push inflation above the central bank's comfort zone, whilst persistent economic weakness could drive it below target.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Mexico Annual Inflation 2026" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$41K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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