Trade: Core CPI YoY - May 2026
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $8K
- Total Volume
- $2K
- 24h Volume
- $112
- Open Interest
- $875
Market outcomes
| ≤2.4% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 2.6% | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 2.8% | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| 3.0% | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| 3.2% | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 2.5% | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 2.7% | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| 2.9% | 39% YES | 61% NO |
Market context
The Bureau of Labour Statistics will release its Consumer Price Index report for May 2026 in early June, revealing the 12-month change in core inflation (excluding food and energy) through that month. This measure strips out volatile food and fuel components to isolate underlying price pressures in the economy. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 1% implied probability, suggesting traders assess an extremely low likelihood of the specific resolution value this market will settle to.
Core CPI has historically ranged between 1.6% and 3.2% annually over the past decade, with readings below 2% occurring only during deflationary periods following major economic shocks. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures deflator, has similarly remained within a 1.5–3.5% band. A 1% crowd probability typically reflects either an extremely narrow resolution band or a consensus view that current economic conditions make certain outcomes implausible. Historical precedent suggests core inflation rarely settles at extreme values unless monetary policy or demand shocks are severe.
Traders monitoring this market should track Federal Reserve communications and labour market data through early 2026, as wage growth directly influences core inflation trajectories. The Fed's policy stance—particularly interest rate decisions through Q1 2026—will shape demand and pricing power across services and goods excluding food and energy. Energy prices, whilst excluded from core CPI, influence broader economic conditions and consumer spending patterns that feed into core measures. The May 2026 release date itself depends on the BLS maintaining its standard publication schedule.
Wikipedia Context
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Core countriesIn world-systems theory, core countries are the industrialized capitalist and/or imperialist countries. Core countries control and benefit the most resources from the global market. They are usually recognized as wealthy states with a wide variety of resources and are in a favorable location compared to other states. They have strong state institutions, a po
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CoreCivicCoreCivic, Inc. is an American private prison operator and one of the largest for-profit prison, jail and detention contractors in the United States. It has been the target of divestment campaigns, FBI investigations and lawsuits alleging civil rights violations and forced labor at some of its owned or operated 70 state and federal correctional and detention
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Cork (city)Cork is the second-largest city in the Republic of Ireland, the county town of County Cork, the largest city in the province of Munster and the third-largest on the island of Ireland. At the 2022 census, it had a population of 224,004.
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Core Curriculum (Columbia College)The Core Curriculum was originally developed as the main curriculum used by Columbia College of Columbia University in 1919. Created in the wake of World War I, it became the framework for many similar educational models throughout the United States, and has played an influential role in the incorporation of the concept of Western civilization into the Ameri
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Core CPI YoY - May 2026" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$2K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $112 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Core CPI YoY - May 2026"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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