Trade: Central Bank of Colombia Decision in June?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the monetary policy rate as a result of the Central Bank of Colombia's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Central Bank of Colombia after its June 30, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar: https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos. This market may resolve as soon as the Central Bank of Colombia's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $3K
- Total Volume
- $3K
- 24h Volume
- $212
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| Decrease | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| No change | 62% YES | 39% NO |
| Increase | 42% YES | 58% NO |
Market context
The Central Bank of Colombia will convene on 30 June 2026 to set its target monetary policy rate. The market resolves YES if the bank changes this rate from its current level; it resolves NO if the rate remains unchanged. The 3% implied probability reflects the order book's current assessment that a decision to alter rates is unlikely at that particular meeting.
Colombia's central bank has maintained a cautious approach to rate adjustments over recent policy cycles, typically signalling changes well in advance through forward guidance rather than surprising markets at scheduled meetings. The bank cut rates aggressively in 2023–2024 as inflation moderated, but has since paused to assess the persistence of price pressures. Historical precedent suggests that when the bank does move, it often does so in measured increments across multiple meetings rather than in isolated decisions, which contextualises why traders currently assign low probability to a June decision.
The key catalysts for this market centre on inflation data releases in the months preceding June 2026, particularly the Consumer Price Index readings for April and May, which will inform the bank's assessment of price trajectory. The bank's forward guidance statements and any commentary from Governor Leonardo Villar or other board members regarding economic conditions will also shape expectations. External factors including US Federal Reserve policy, oil price movements (given Colombia's export dependence), and domestic fiscal developments could shift the calculus, though the current order book suggests traders expect the bank to remain on hold through June.
Wikipedia Context
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Central bankA central bank, reserve bank, national bank, state bank, or monetary authority is an institution that manages the monetary policy of a country or monetary union. In contrast to a commercial bank, a central bank possesses a monopoly on increasing the monetary base. Many central banks also have supervisory or regulatory powers to ensure the stability of commer
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Central Bank of IranThe Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, also known as Bank Markazi, was established under the Iranian Banking and Monetary Act in 1960. It serves as the banker to the Iranian government and has the exclusive right to issue banknotes and coinage. CBI is tasked with maintaining the value of the Iranian rial and supervision of banks and credit institu
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Central Bank of IrelandThe Central Bank of Ireland is the national central bank for Ireland within the Eurosystem. From 1943 to 1998, it was the monetary authority responsible for issuing and controlling the Irish pound. It is also the country's primary financial supervisory authority.
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Central Bank of the Republic of TurkeyThe Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) is the central bank of Turkey. Its responsibilities include conducting monetary and exchange rate policy, managing international reserves of Turkey, as well as printing and issuing banknotes, and establishing, maintaining and regulating payment systems in the country.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Central Bank of Colombia Decision in June?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$3K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $212 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Central Bank of Colombia Decision in June?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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