Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ECB rate hike in 2026? | 88% YES | 13% NO |
The European Central Bank faces a decision on whether to raise its deposit facility rate at any point during 2026. The current Polymarket order book prices this outcome at 88% probability, reflecting market expectations that monetary conditions will tighten over the coming year. The deposit facility rate serves as the ECB's primary policy tool and currently stands at 3.75% following the most recent cuts in December 2024.
Historical precedent suggests the ECB typically moves in cycles aligned with inflation dynamics and economic conditions. Between 2022 and 2023, the bank raised rates aggressively from negative territory to 4.0%, responding to elevated eurozone inflation. The subsequent pause and pivot to cuts in 2024 occurred as price pressures moderated. A 2026 hike would reverse the easing trajectory only if inflation resurges or growth strengthens materially beyond current forecasts, making the 88% probability notable—it implies traders expect a meaningful shift in economic conditions within twelve months.
Traders should monitor eurozone inflation data releases, particularly the January and February 2026 consumer price reports, alongside ECB communications from President Christine Lagarde and other Governing Council members. The bank's forward guidance at its March, June, September and December meetings will signal conviction about rate direction. External factors including US monetary policy divergence, energy price movements and geopolitical developments affecting the eurozone economy will influence whether the ECB perceives sufficient justification to reverse course. The December 2026 meeting, scheduled for 16-17 December, represents the final settlement window for this market.
The ECB National Club Twenty20 is a knockout Twenty20 club cricket competition in England. It was established in 2008 and the inaugural winners were South Northumberland. The competition is currently known for sponsorship reasons as the Vitality Club T20. In 2023 Wimbledon, won the title for the third time when they beat Sandiacre Town. The 2024 champions a
The ECB National Club Cricket Championship is a forty over limited overs knockout club cricket competition in England. The most successful clubs have been Scarborough, from North Yorkshire, with five titles and Old Hill, from Staffordshire, with four. The current holders are Ormskirk Cricket Club, from Lancashire
Patent-related uncertainty around elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), or ECC patents, is one of the main factors limiting its wide acceptance. For example, the OpenSSL team accepted an ECC patch only in 2005, despite the fact that it was submitted in 2002.
E-Rate is the commonly used name for the Schools and Libraries Program of the Universal Service Fund, which is administered by the Universal Service Administrative Company (USAC) under the direction of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC). The program provides discounts to assist schools and libraries in the United States to obtain affordable telecom
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "ECB rate hike in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$109K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for economic policy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $60 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 88%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: