Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between ex-HEROIC and GamerLegion in the DreamLeague Group A, initially scheduled for May 13 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ex-HEROIC" if ex-HEROIC win the match against GamerLegion. This market will resolve to "GamerLegion" if GamerLegion win the match against ex-HEROIC. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Game Handicap: ex-HEROIC (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% YES | 73% NO |
Ex-HEROIC and GamerLegion are scheduled to contest a best-of-three Dota 2 match in DreamLeague's Group A stage on 13 May at 06:00 ET. The fixture forms part of the ongoing competitive circuit where both organisations compete for ranking points and prize pool qualification. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 54% implied probability for ex-HEROIC's victory, suggesting marginal favouritism despite both teams operating at comparable tiers within the regional competitive landscape.
Ex-HEROIC has maintained roster stability following its transition from the HEROIC organisation, whilst GamerLegion represents an established European squad with consistent LAN participation. Historical matchups between similarly-ranked teams in DreamLeague group stages typically resolve within the 45–55% probability band, indicating the market has priced this encounter as genuinely competitive rather than a clear favourite scenario. Both organisations have demonstrated capacity to win against higher-seeded opponents when preparation and draft execution align favourably.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and any last-minute roster changes in the days preceding the match, as substitutions have occasionally altered competitive balance in regional qualifiers. Schedule adherence remains critical given the settlement window's seven-day extension clause; delays beyond that threshold would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Recent DreamLeague fixtures have proceeded on schedule, though technical issues during group stages have occasionally necessitated rescheduling. The match's position as a group-stage encounter rather than a knockout round reduces forfeit risk, though connection failures or organisational complications remain non-zero factors in online-based competitive formats.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$229 in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for dota 2 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $229 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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