Trade: YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of YOM's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by YOM will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $595
- Total Volume
- $138
- 24h Volume
- $108
- Open Interest
- $120
Market outcomes
| $50M | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| $200M | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| $20M | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| $100M | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| $300M | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| $800M | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| $500M | 19% YES | 82% NO |
Market context
YOM is preparing to launch a native token, with market participants currently pricing a 51% probability that its fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of going live. The FDV calculation uses total token supply multiplied by the initial trading price, measured at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch. Only an official token from YOM qualifies; stablecoins, memecoins, liquid staking tokens and synthetics are excluded. The token must be actively tradable on public markets for the launch to register.
Recent crypto token launches show highly variable initial valuations depending on project maturity, community size and exchange listing quality. Established projects with substantial user bases—such as those launching on major centralised exchanges—frequently achieve FDVs in the hundreds of millions within the first day. Conversely, projects with limited distribution or exchange access often see more modest initial valuations. The current 51% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about YOM's launch conditions and market reception, suggesting traders view the threshold as roughly at the median expected outcome rather than an outlier scenario.
Key catalysts include the official launch date announcement, exchange listing confirmations and initial trading volume data. Traders should monitor whether YOM secures listings on tier-one exchanges like Binance or Coinbase, as this substantially affects price discovery and initial FDV. Pre-launch community metrics, including social engagement and token allocation details, will inform expectations ahead of the 4:00 PM ET measurement window. The settlement deadline of 1 January 2028 provides substantial time for the launch to occur, though the exact timing remains a material variable for positioning.
Wikipedia Context
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Yom Tov Torah readings
On Yom Tov the Torah is read during Shacharit services.
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Yom-Tov Lipmann HellerRabbi Gershon Shaul Yom-Tov Lipmann ben Nathan ha-Levi Heller, was a Bohemian rabbi and Talmudist, best known for writing a commentary on the Mishnah called the Tosefet Yom-Tov (1614–1617). Heller was one of the major Talmudic scholars in Prague and in Poland during the "Golden Age" before 1648.
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Yom-Tov Lipmann-Muhlhausen
Yom-Tov Lipmann ben Solomon Mühlhausen was a controversial Talmudist, Kabbalist and Jewish philosopher of the 14th and 15th centuries. His religious and scholarly career and influence spanned the Jewish communities of Bohemia, Poland, Austria and various parts of Germany, and his dispute with the principles of Christianity left a lasting imprint on the relat
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Yom Tov of Seville
Yom Tov ben Abraham of Seville commonly known by the Hebrew acronym Ritva, was a medieval rabbi and rosh yeshiva of the Yeshiva of Seville, known for his commentaries on the Talmud.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$138 in lifetime turnover and $595 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $108 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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