Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy is removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index at any point by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” If MicroStrategy is transferred between indexes (e.g., from MSCI World to another MSCI index), that will also count as a removal for the purposes of this market. An official MSCI announcement of removal or transfer will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| June 30 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
MicroStrategy's inclusion in major MSCI indices depends on meeting specific index methodology criteria, primarily around free-float market capitalisation and liquidity thresholds. The company currently qualifies for both the MSCI World Index and MSCI USA Index. An MSCI removal or transfer would occur if MicroStrategy falls below these quantitative requirements or if MSCI's methodology changes materially affect its classification. The market is pricing a 0% probability of delisting by end-March 2026, reflecting confidence in the company's continued index eligibility over the next fifteen months.
Historical precedent suggests MSCI removals are relatively uncommon for large-cap US equities and typically result from corporate actions—mergers, acquisitions, or dramatic market capitalisation declines—rather than routine methodology adjustments. Companies are generally removed during scheduled quarterly index reviews if they breach thresholds, though extraordinary reviews can occur. MicroStrategy's market cap of approximately £20 billion positions it well above typical delisting triggers for major indices, making removal unlikely absent a significant corporate event or sustained equity decline.
Traders should monitor MicroStrategy's quarterly earnings reports and free-float adjustments, which feed into MSCI's semi-annual index reviews in May and November. Any material shift in the company's Bitcoin holdings strategy, major capital raises, or equity issuance could affect free-float calculations. MSCI's methodology reviews and any announced changes to index criteria represent secondary catalysts. The current Polymarket order book reflects minimal perceived risk of delisting within the settlement window, with the 0% implied probability suggesting traders view the threshold for removal as improbable given present market conditions.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.0M in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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