Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized. If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | 38% YES | 63% NO |
Bitcoin's annual return against the US dollar will need to exceed gold's annual return throughout 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The comparison uses percentage change measured on TradingView's 12-month candles, with settlement determined by the 01 January 2026 candle data once finalised on 01 January 2027. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 37% implied probability of Bitcoin outperformance, suggesting traders assign roughly two-to-one odds favouring gold's relative strength over the coming year.
Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated significantly higher volatility than gold, with annual returns ranging from −65% to +1,300% since 2011, whilst gold typically fluctuates between −10% and +25% annually. Gold's performance correlates closely with real interest rates, US dollar weakness, and geopolitical risk, whereas Bitcoin responds to adoption narratives, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic sentiment shifts. The current probability reflects scepticism about Bitcoin sustaining outperformance given gold's defensive positioning in uncertain macro conditions.
Key catalysts include the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory throughout 2026, which directly influences gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset. Bitcoin's regulatory environment—particularly developments from the SEC regarding spot ETF frameworks and potential legislation—will shape institutional adoption. Cryptocurrency market structure, including the halving cycle's maturity and institutional capital flows, remains material. Geopolitical tensions affecting safe-haven demand and inflation expectations will influence both assets' relative attractiveness to traders rebalancing portfolios.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$402K in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $143 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 38%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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