Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Axiom officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| December 31, 2025 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| December 31, 2027 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
Axiom, a zero-knowledge proof infrastructure protocol, has not publicly committed to launching a native token as of late 2024. The market resolves affirmatively only if a fully tradeable and transferable token becomes actively available on public exchanges or decentralised platforms by 31 December 2025, with announcements alone insufficient for resolution. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the absence of any official token roadmap or launch timeline from the protocol's team.
Comparable zk-proof infrastructure projects offer instructive precedent. Starknet launched STRK in February 2024 after years of operation without a token, whilst Scroll has maintained no token despite significant ecosystem adoption. Conversely, some protocols have announced tokens years in advance before actual launch. The distinction between announcement and active trading—central to this market's resolution criteria—has historically created resolution disputes, though Polymarket's emphasis on "actively and publicly transferable" tokens sets a high bar that eliminates ambiguity around pre-launch or non-functional tokens.
Traders should monitor Axiom's official communications, governance discussions, and funding announcements throughout 2025. Recent venture funding rounds or shifts in tokenomics discussion within the protocol's community would signal changing sentiment. The 13-month settlement window provides limited time for a protocol with no stated token plans to design, audit, and deploy a functioning token system. Any credible reporting from established crypto news outlets regarding official Axiom statements would constitute material information for position reassessment.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Axiom launch a token by 2025?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$193K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $11 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 9 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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