Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Gainzy | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| SBF | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| Jeff Yan | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Brian Armstrong | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| GCR | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Arthur Hayes | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Su Zhu | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| Javier Milei | 37% YES | 64% NO |
UpOnly is a prominent cryptocurrency podcast hosted by Cobie Malinowski and GPT, focusing on market analysis, trading strategies, and industry commentary. The market resolves affirmatively if a specified guest appears on a publicly released episode before the end of 2026, with the current order book pricing this outcome at 45% implied probability. Resolution requires a full episode published on official channels—YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show's official feed—rather than clips or promotional material.
Historical guest appearance rates on established crypto podcasts suggest significant variance depending on guest profile and timing. Major industry figures, protocol founders, and prominent traders have appeared on UpOnly with reasonable frequency, though scheduling constraints and guest availability create genuine uncertainty. Comparable shows like The Pomp Podcast and Bankless have maintained regular guest rotations, but individual guest appearances remain difficult to predict precisely. A 45% probability reflects meaningful uncertainty about whether a particular guest will secure a slot within the roughly two-year window, accounting for the show's production cadence and the guest's accessibility.
Traders should monitor announcements from the specified guest's organisation, conference schedules where UpOnly hosts typically conduct interviews, and any public statements about media appearances. Recent industry consolidation and regulatory developments have influenced guest availability—several prominent figures have reduced podcast appearances due to compliance concerns or operational demands. The show's publishing frequency and any announced guest lineups would serve as leading indicators, though UpOnly typically maintains flexible scheduling that can accommodate unexpected opportunities.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$28K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $37 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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