Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Bitcoin hit on May 12?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 89,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 88,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 87,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 86,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 85,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 84,000 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| ↑ 83,000 | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| ↑ 82,000 | 36% YES | 64% NO |
Bitcoin's price action on 12 May 2026 remains uncertain, with the market currently pricing zero probability for this specific outcome on Polymarket's order book. The settlement window extends to 13 May 2026, capturing a single day's trading activity. Current pricing reflects either extreme confidence in a particular price level or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the available strike prices.
Historical Bitcoin volatility provides context for interpreting this probability distribution. Over comparable 18-month forward windows, Bitcoin has typically experienced price swings of 30–50% from any given baseline, with single-day moves of 5–15% occurring during significant news events. The zero probability reading suggests either that the specific price point specified in this market's terms sits outside consensus expectations, or that traders have not yet committed capital to establish a proper price discovery mechanism on this particular contract.
Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic policy announcements, regulatory developments affecting cryptocurrency markets, and Bitcoin's spot price trajectory through early 2026. The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and any major institutional adoption announcements could materially shift volatility expectations. Additionally, Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and technology stocks may intensify around earnings seasons or significant geopolitical events. The current flat order book suggests an opportunity for informed traders to establish positions before broader market participation occurs.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Bitcoin hit on May 12?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$23K in lifetime turnover and $198K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $23K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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