Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified, a quantum computer has been publicly demonstrated to derive a valid private key corresponding to an existing Bitcoin address using a quantum algorithm, such that the derived key is sufficient to sign a valid transaction on the Bitcoin mainnet. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, the demonstration must satisfy all of the following: The private key must be derived from a real Bitcoin address whose corresponding public key has been revealed on the Bitcoin blockchain (for example, via a prior transaction).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| December 31, 2026 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| December 31, 2027 | 20% YES | 80% NO |
The market concerns whether a quantum computer will publicly demonstrate the ability to crack Bitcoin's cryptography by deriving a private key from a known public key on the mainnet before a specified date. This would represent a fundamental break in the security model underpinning Bitcoin's ~$1 trillion asset base, requiring the quantum system to execute Shor's algorithm or equivalent against elliptic curve cryptography at scale. The resolution criteria demand a verifiable, public demonstration using a real Bitcoin address with an exposed public key, not merely theoretical capability.
Current pricing at 4% reflects the substantial distance between today's quantum capabilities and the threshold required for this attack. Existing quantum computers—IBM's 433-qubit Heron, Google's Willow chip, and others—remain far from the estimated 1.9 million logical qubits needed to break Bitcoin's 256-bit elliptic curves in practical timeframes. Historical precedent matters here: cryptographic breaks typically emerge through academic publication and peer review before weaponisation, and no credible research suggests near-term feasibility. The timeline dependency is critical; markets with nearer dates command lower probabilities than those extending years forward.
Traders should monitor quantum hardware announcements from IBM, Google, and IonQ, particularly claims regarding error correction and logical qubit counts. Recent reports from late 2024 show incremental progress rather than breakthrough advances. Additionally, any Bitcoin protocol upgrades—such as moves toward quantum-resistant signatures—would alter the attack surface. The Polymarket order book currently reflects consensus scepticism, with YES contracts trading at substantial discounts, suggesting sophisticated participants view the near-term risk as negligible relative to longer-dated tail scenarios.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Quantum breaks Bitcoin by ___?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $189 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: