Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market captures a five-minute window for Hyperliquid's price movement on 5 May 2026, settling against Chainlink's HYPE/USD oracle feed rather than spot exchange prices. The compressed timeframe—12:35 to 12:40 AM ET—creates a micro-volatility bet where intraday momentum, order flow imbalances, and algorithmic trading patterns dominate over fundamental shifts. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in downward pressure during this specific window or minimal liquidity attracting no counterparties willing to back an upside move at current odds.
Five-minute crypto price windows historically exhibit mean-reversion characteristics following larger directional moves, though Hyperliquid's relatively recent emergence as a major derivatives platform means comparable historical data remains limited. Broader crypto markets during early-morning US hours (12:35 AM ET) typically experience lower volume and wider spreads, conditions that can amplify small price swings. The current 0% probability suggests the order book has absorbed selling pressure or lacks sufficient depth to price in any realistic upside scenario for this specific interval.
Traders should monitor whether major crypto indices move during the settlement window, as correlated liquidations or funding rate adjustments on Hyperliquid's own perpetuals could trigger directional pressure. Chainlink's oracle update frequency and any network congestion affecting data feeds warrant attention, though the five-minute window leaves minimal room for reaction to external announcements. The absence of scheduled economic data or exchange maintenance windows during this early-morning slot reduces event-driven catalysts.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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