Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 70,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 72,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 74,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 76,000 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| 78,000 | 89% YES | 11% NO |
| 80,000 | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| 82,000 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 84,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on Bitcoin's Binance BTC/USDT closing price at the 12:00 noon ET candle on 14 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating traders are pricing near-certainty that Bitcoin will close above the specified threshold at that exact timestamp. Such extreme probabilities typically emerge when the strike price sits substantially below prevailing spot rates, leaving minimal room for a downside move within the settlement window.
Historical precedent suggests that one-minute candle settlements on major exchanges exhibit high predictability when the target level is far removed from current trading ranges. Bitcoin's intraday volatility, whilst material, rarely produces moves of sufficient magnitude to breach thresholds set many percentage points below spot—particularly across a single noon candle. The 100% reading reflects this structural reality: the market is pricing the event as near-certain given the distance between current levels and the strike.
Traders monitoring this position should track macroeconomic calendar events in the weeks preceding settlement, particularly US Federal Reserve communications and inflation data releases, which historically drive Bitcoin volatility. Regulatory announcements from major jurisdictions and shifts in institutional capital flows can also influence spot prices. The specific noon ET timestamp means that any overnight Asian or European session moves will have settled by resolution, though US morning trading activity could introduce late volatility. Binance's order book depth and any exchange-level technical issues on the settlement date remain secondary considerations given the wide margin embedded in current pricing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin above 2026 on May 14?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$983K in lifetime turnover and $416K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $703K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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