Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market resolves based on whether Hyperliquid's price according to Chainlink's HYPE/USD data feed closes higher or flat over a five-minute window on 4 May between 11:30AM and 11:35AM ET. The 100% implied probability reflects the order book's current positioning, where traders are pricing near-certainty for an upward or neutral price movement during this specific interval. Such extreme probabilities on micro-timeframe price movements typically emerge when liquidity is thin or when one side of the market has accumulated a dominant position.
Five-minute price intervals on established tokens rarely settle to extreme probabilities in efficient markets, as short-term volatility is inherently difficult to predict with confidence. Historical precedent suggests that when prediction markets show 100% conviction on intraday price movements, execution risk and data feed timing become critical factors. The Chainlink HYPE/USD stream's update frequency and any latency between spot market movements and on-chain price reporting could influence settlement, particularly given the narrow five-minute window leaves minimal margin for price discovery.
Traders should monitor Hyperliquid's trading volume and volatility patterns in the days preceding 4 May, as unusual activity could signal anticipated news or market-moving events. Any announcements regarding the Hyperliquid ecosystem, broader cryptocurrency market movements, or changes to exchange operations could shift price action during the settlement window. The reliance on Chainlink's specific data feed rather than spot market prices means traders must verify the feed's operational status and update cadence on the resolution date itself.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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