Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Binance Coin will either appreciate or remain flat during a five-minute window on 1 May 2026 at 9:05–9:10 PM Eastern Time, as measured by Chainlink's BNB/USD data feed. The market currently reflects a 100% implied probability of an upward or neutral move, suggesting the order book on Polymarket has priced in an expectation that BNB will not decline during this specific interval.
Five-minute crypto price windows typically exhibit minimal directional conviction in traditional markets, with most micro-intervals closing flat or within fractional percentage moves. Historical precedent suggests that ultra-short-duration price windows on major assets like BNB rarely settle to decisive downside outcomes unless exogenous shocks occur—exchange outages, regulatory announcements, or liquidation cascades. The current 100% probability reflects this baseline reality: statistically, five-minute periods favour stability over sharp reversals. However, such extreme certainty in a five-minute window is unusual and may indicate thin liquidity on the "Down" side of the order book rather than genuine conviction about price direction.
Traders should monitor Binance's operational status and any announcements from major exchanges during the settlement window. BNB's price behaviour depends heavily on broader Bitcoin and Ethereum movements, particularly if either asset experiences volatility during that specific five-minute slot. Chainlink's data feed itself carries minimal latency risk for a five-minute resolution, though traders should verify the feed's uptime status prior to settlement. The settlement window closes on 2 May at 01:10 UTC, allowing sufficient time for price confirmation against Chainlink's recorded data.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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