Trade the outcome below — no house edge, instant USDC settlement on Polygon
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Hong Kong, China and Thailand scheduled for 2026-05-25 in T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Hong Kong, China will be considered correct if Hong Kong, China is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Thailand will be considered correct if Thailand is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Odds will populate live once the order book fills (the resolution date has passed — final payout is being settled via UMA oracle).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| HON | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| THA | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The 2026 T20 Asian Games Women's Qualifier will feature Hong Kong, China against Thailand on 25 May, with this market requiring both a toss win and match victory for either side to settle affirmatively. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the compound difficulty of predicting two independent events simultaneously—a coin toss carries inherent 50-50 odds, whilst match outcomes depend on team strength, conditions and performance. The current pricing suggests minimal liquidity or conviction amongst traders, typical for niche qualifying fixtures in women's cricket where historical data remains sparse.
Women's T20 cricket in Asia remains underdeveloped relative to established formats, with both Hong Kong and Thailand fielding developing squads. Historical precedent from similar Asian Games qualifiers shows that favourites in women's cricket rarely exceed 70-75% match-win probability, even against weaker opponents. Combined with toss randomness, double outcomes (toss and match) for any single team typically trade between 20-35% in comparable fixtures. The current 0% reading suggests either no active market makers have priced this fixture, or initial traders have positioned defensively.
Catalysts for movement include squad announcements and recent head-to-head records, which should emerge as the May fixture approaches. Weather forecasts for the host venue will influence match odds once published. Traders should monitor Asian Cricket Council communications regarding qualifier scheduling and any late withdrawals, which could affect competitive balance. The settlement window closing on 2 June allows approximately one week post-match for official confirmation via ESPNcricinfo.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 2 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.espncricinfo.com/), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Thailand - Toss Match Double", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($0 of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Thailand - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for cricket contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Thailand - Toss Match Double", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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