Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ≤3.3% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 3.4% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 3.6% | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 3.8% | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| ≥4.4% | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| 3.5% | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 3.7% | 3% YES | 98% NO |
| 3.9% | 4% YES | 96% NO |
The market prices the annual change in the Consumer Price Index for the 12-month period ending May 2026, unadjusted for seasonal factors. The BLS will release this figure on 10 June 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Current order book depth on Polymarket reflects a 1% implied probability for YES, indicating traders expect year-on-year CPI growth to fall below the market's threshold by that date.
The Federal Reserve's inflation trajectory since 2022 provides essential context. After peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, annual CPI declined to 3.4% by December 2024, then ticked back to 3.7% in January 2025. The May 2026 reading will reflect 12 months of price changes from May 2025 onwards. Historical precedent suggests that once inflation moderates from elevated levels, sustained low readings become increasingly difficult; the 1% probability reflects market scepticism that CPI will remain exceptionally subdued throughout the entire measurement window.
Traders should monitor Federal Reserve policy decisions, labour market data, and commodity prices through spring 2026, as these drive near-term inflation dynamics. Energy prices, wage growth, and shelter costs—which comprise roughly one-third of the index—warrant particular attention. The May 2026 report will also incorporate base effects from May 2025, when year-on-year comparisons were already moderating. Any significant economic shock or policy shift between now and May 2026 could materially alter the inflation trajectory, though the current order book suggests the market views such scenarios as unlikely to produce the specific outcome required for YES resolution.
In general relativity, mass inflation or mass blow-up is a phenomenon inside spinning or charged black holes in which the interactions of outgoing and ingoing radiation at the Cauchy horizon cause the internal gravitational mass parameter of the black hole to become unbounded at the Cauchy horizon. It also predicts the existence of a weak null singularity at
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "May Inflation US - Annual" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $55K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for cpi contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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