Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve removes the listed map from the official map pool by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the removal lasts continuously for at least 48 hours. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Temporary or testing removals reversed within 48 hours do not count. The "official map pool" refers to the Active Duty map group in CS2, used for competitive matchmaking (Premier mode) and professional tournaments. For the purpose of this market, “Valve” refers to Valve Corporation, the developer and publisher of the Counter-Strike series.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Mirage | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Nuke | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Overpass | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Train | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Inferno | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| Dust 2 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Ancient | 7% YES | 93% NO |
Valve's removal of a map from Counter-Strike 2's Active Duty pool before 30 June 2026 remains an uncommon occurrence. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 8% implied probability, suggesting traders assess meaningful but low likelihood of a permanent map rotation change within the settlement window. This probability has been shaped by the relatively stable composition of CS2's competitive map pool since the game's launch in September 2023, with Valve demonstrating reluctance to disrupt the professional circuit through sudden removals.
Historical precedent provides limited guidance for this market. Valve has occasionally rotated maps in and out of Active Duty, though such changes typically occur during scheduled seasonal updates rather than ad hoc removals. The distinction between temporary testing removals—which do not trigger resolution—and permanent departures lasting at least 48 hours creates a meaningful threshold. Previous map pool adjustments in Counter-Strike: Global Offensive occurred infrequently and often coincided with major patches or competitive season transitions.
Traders should monitor Valve's official announcements regarding CS2 balance changes and competitive scheduling, particularly any statements about map performance metrics or player feedback driving rotation decisions. The professional esports calendar, including Major tournaments scheduled through mid-2026, may influence timing of any potential removals, as Valve typically avoids disrupting established competitive schedules. Community sentiment regarding specific maps and any technical issues affecting gameplay could signal catalyst events, though Valve's historical caution suggests the 8% probability reflects genuine structural resistance to mid-season map pool alterations.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which maps will Valve Remove by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$712K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for counter strike 2 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $13 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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