Trade: Which bills will become law in 2026?

Market context

Congressional passage of legislation and presidential signature by year-end 2026 remains subject to the composition and priorities of the 119th Congress. The current 60% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects expectations that at least some bills will clear both chambers and receive executive approval within the settlement window, though the specific legislative agenda remains fluid depending on which bills traders are pricing.

Historical precedent suggests that congressional productivity varies considerably by session. The 117th Congress (2021–2023) passed 284 bills into law across two years, whilst the 116th (2019–2021) enacted 344. Passage rates depend heavily on unified or divided government, with divided chambers typically producing fewer bills overall. The 119th Congress convenes with Republican control of both chambers and a Republican presidency, a configuration that historically correlates with higher legislative throughput on party priorities, though obstruction and procedural delays remain common.

Traders should monitor the congressional calendar through 2026, particularly recess periods and the approach to mid-term election season, which typically reduces legislative momentum. Key catalysts include announcements of priority legislation from House and Senate leadership, committee schedules, and any shifts in party dynamics or presidential focus. Congress.gov remains the authoritative source for tracking bill status and passage dates. The settlement window extends through 31 December 2026, meaning bills passed in the final weeks of the year qualify, though pocket vetoes that expire after Congress adjourns resolve to "No".

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Which bills will become law in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$98K in lifetime turnover and $42K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for congress contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.

Last 24 hours alone saw $2 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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