Trade: What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $148K
- Total Volume
- $282K
- 24h Volume
- $616
- Open Interest
- $133K
Market outcomes
| ↑ $10,000 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| ↑ $12,000 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| ↑ $7,000 | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| ↑ $8,000 | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| ↑ $15,000 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| ↑ $6,000 | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| ↑ $5,000 | — | |
Market context
Gold futures on the CME are currently trading around $2,600–$2,700 per troy ounce, depending on market conditions. This market tests whether the front-month contract will reach a specific price threshold at any point during 2026, with settlement determined by the official CME closing price on any trading day through 31 December. The 6% probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial scepticism about gold reaching the target level within the settlement window, suggesting the threshold sits meaningfully above current spot valuations or represents a move requiring significant macroeconomic disruption.
Historical gold volatility provides context for interpreting this low probability. Between 2020 and 2024, gold moved from roughly $1,770 to peaks near $2,500, a move of approximately 41% over four years. Year-on-year swings of 10–15% are commonplace; moves exceeding 20% in a single calendar year have occurred in five of the past fifteen years. However, the extended timeframe to end-2026 and the specific price target embedded in this market suggest traders are pricing in either a high threshold or a belief that 2026 will lack the monetary or geopolitical catalysts that typically drive gold rallies.
Key variables for 2026 include US Federal Reserve policy trajectories, real interest rates, and USD strength—all of which inversely correlate with gold demand. Inflation data, central bank purchases (particularly from emerging markets), and geopolitical tensions will influence spot prices. The contract's mechanics mean traders must monitor the Active Month designation; as December 2026 approaches, the front month will shift from October to December, affecting liquidity and settlement conditions in the final weeks.
Wikipedia Context
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Gold standardA gold standard is a monetary system in which the standard economic unit of account is defined by a fixed quantity of gold. The gold standard was the basis for the international monetary system from the 1870s to the early 1920s, and from the late 1920s to 1932 as well as from 1944 until 1971 when the United States unilaterally terminated convertibility of th
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GoldfishThe goldfish is a freshwater fish in the family Cyprinidae of the order Cypriniformes. It is commonly kept as a pet in indoor aquariums, and is one of the most popular aquarium fish. Goldfish released into the wild have become an invasive pest in parts of North America and Australia.
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Gold Coast, QueenslandThe Gold Coast, also known by its initials, GC, is a coastal city and region in the state of Queensland, Australia, located approximately 66 kilometres (41 mi) south-southeast of the centre of the state capital, Brisbane. It is on the central eastern coast of Australia facing the Pacific Ocean. It is Queensland's second-largest city after Brisbane, as well a
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Gold Rush (TV series)Gold Rush is an American reality television television series that airs on Discovery and its affiliates worldwide. The series follows the placer gold mining efforts of various family-run mining companies, initially in Alaska, but then mostly in the Klondike region of Dawson City, Yukon, Canada. Prior seasons also included mining efforts in Guyana, Oregon, an
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$282K in lifetime turnover and $148K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for comex gold features contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $616 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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