Trade: UFC: Who will Conor McGregor fight next?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Conor McGregor is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Conor McGregor is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $3K
- Total Volume
- $22K
- 24h Volume
- $240
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| Michael Chandler | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Fighter C | — | |
| Fighter G | — | |
| Fighter K | — | |
| Fighter O | — | |
| Max Holloway | 88% YES | 12% NO |
| Ian Garry | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Fighter D | — | |
Market context
McGregor's next official UFC opponent remains unconfirmed as of early 2025, with the Irish fighter managing his return from injury whilst the promotion considers matchups across multiple weight classes. The 11% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty about whether an official announcement with a scheduled date will materialise before the March 2027 settlement window closes. This low probability suggests the market is pricing in either significant delays in McGregor's comeback timeline or the possibility that no formal bout announcement occurs within the specified period.
Historical precedent shows McGregor's comeback announcements have often faced delays and schedule adjustments. Following his 2021 leg fracture against Dustin Poirier, nearly two years elapsed before his next official fight announcement. The UFC's tendency to announce bouts with confirmed dates only when both fighter and promotion have aligned on terms means speculation about potential opponents—whether Nate Diaz, Michael Chandler, or others—does not trigger resolution. Current market pricing reflects this friction between public interest in McGregor matchups and the formal announcement threshold required for settlement.
Traders should monitor UFC official statements and press conferences for any announcement pairing McGregor with a named opponent and fight date. Recent reporting from MMA media outlets suggests McGregor remains in recovery phases, with no imminent bout confirmation. The settlement window extends nearly two years, providing ample time for developments, though the low probability indicates market participants view an official announcement as unlikely relative to the possibility of continued delays or McGregor's extended absence from competition.
Wikipedia Context
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Ultimate Fighting ChampionshipThe Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is an American mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion company based in Las Vegas, Nevada. It is owned and operated by TKO Group Holdings, itself a majority owned subsidiary of Endeavor Group Holdings. The largest MMA promotion in the world, the UFC has over 578 fighters contracted that fight across 11 weight divisions. Th
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Ultimate Fighting Championship controversies
The American-based Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is the largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion in the world. Since its inception in 1993, the UFC has been the subject of controversies, ranging from moral condemnation of its events by politicians, which resulted in MMA being banned in many US states during the late 90's to mid 2010's, to criticis
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University of Colorado Colorado SpringsThe University of Colorado Colorado Springs (UCCS) is a public research university in Colorado Springs, Colorado, United States. It is one of four campuses that make up the University of Colorado system. As of Fall 2023, UCCS had over 11,000 students, including more than 9,000 undergraduates and nearly 2,000 graduate students. It is classified among "R2: Doc
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UCCS Mountain LionsThe UCCS Mountain Lions is the official name of the athletic teams that represent the University of Colorado Colorado Springs, located in Colorado Springs, Colorado, in NCAA Division II intercollegiate sports. The Mountain Lions compete as members of the Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference for all 16 varsity sports. The school mascot is the mountain lion, Cly
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "UFC: Who will Conor McGregor fight next?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$22K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for combats contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $240 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 March 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "UFC: Who will Conor McGregor fight next?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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