Trade: Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $5K
- Total Volume
- $3K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $918
Market outcomes
| <48% | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 51-54% | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| 57-60% | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| 48-51% | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| 54-57% | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| 60%+ | 25% YES | 75% NO |
Market context
Colombia will hold its first-round presidential election on 31 May 2026. The market resolves based on the official voter turnout rate—total votes cast divided by eligible voters—with settlement occurring after official results are published. The current order book implies just 5% probability for a YES resolution, suggesting traders expect turnout below a specific threshold that the market's bracket structure defines.
Colombian presidential elections have historically demonstrated variable participation rates. The 2022 first round achieved approximately 58% turnout, whilst the 2018 election saw around 49%. Turnout patterns reflect broader engagement with specific candidates and electoral dynamics; when contests feature polarising figures or high-stakes policy differences, participation tends toward higher ranges. The 2022 election's elevated turnout coincided with significant voter interest in leftist candidate Gustavo Petro's candidacy. Current pricing at 5% suggests the market consensus expects turnout materially below historical norms, though the specific threshold remains dependent on how the resolution brackets are structured.
Key catalysts include the official candidate registration process and campaign momentum through early 2026. Electoral commission announcements regarding voter registration drives and any changes to voting accessibility will influence participation forecasts. International observers and domestic polling organisations typically publish turnout predictions in the weeks preceding the election. Any significant political events—policy announcements, scandals, or shifts in candidate viability—could alter voter motivation. The Colombian government's capacity to manage logistics on election day, particularly in rural and remote regions, remains a material factor affecting actual participation rates.
Wikipedia Context
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Colombian presidential inaugurationAfter forty-nine days after the presidential election, the president-elect of Colombia is inaugurated as president through the presidential oath.
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Colombian presidential line of succession
The Colombian presidential line of succession is the order which the vice president and other members of the Colombian national Government assume the powers and duties of the Colombian presidency upon an elected president's death in office, resignation, removal from office upon impeachment conviction or incapacity.
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2022 Colombian presidential electionPresidential elections were held in Colombia on 29 May 2022, with a runoff on 19 June 2022 as no candidate obtained at least 50% in the first round of voting. Iván Duque, who was elected president in 2018, was ineligible to run due to term limits. Gustavo Petro, a senator, former Mayor of Bogotá, and runner-up in the 2018 election, defeated Rodolfo Hernández
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2018 Colombian presidential electionPresidential elections were held in Colombia on 27 May 2018. As no candidate received a majority of the vote, the second round of voting was held on 17 June. Incumbent president Juan Manuel Santos was ineligible to seek a third term. Iván Duque, a senator, defeated Gustavo Petro, former mayor of Bogotá, in the second round. Duque's victory made him one of th
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$3K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for columbia contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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