Resolution criteria on PolyGram: For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | 11% YES | 90% NO |
The question centres on whether a hurricane with sustained winds of 157 mph or higher will make landfall on the continental US coastline before the end of 2026. The National Hurricane Center's Saffir-Simpson scale defines Category 5 as the highest classification. Landfalls are confirmed when the storm's centre crosses the coastline, as documented in official NHC advisories. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 11% implied probability, reflecting market participants' assessment of roughly a one-in-nine chance over the next two years.
Category 5 landfalls remain rare in the modern record. Since 1851, only four Category 5 hurricanes have made US landfall: the 1935 Labor Day hurricane in Florida, Hurricane Camille in 1969, Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and Hurricane Charley in 2004. The 1935 storm and Camille caused the most severe damage. The rarity of these events—roughly one per 40 years historically—anchors the baseline expectation. However, sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico have risen measurably, and some research suggests warming oceans may increase the proportion of storms reaching Category 5 intensity, though the total number of hurricanes has not increased proportionally.
Traders should monitor the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through November. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issues seasonal forecasts in May and August, typically predicting total named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Sea surface temperature anomalies, El Niño conditions, and atmospheric shear patterns will influence seasonal activity. Real-time tracking during the season itself will determine whether any developing storm reaches Category 5 intensity and tracks toward the continental US rather than dissipating or striking elsewhere.
In mathematics, Alexander Grothendieck in his "Tôhoku paper" introduced a sequence of axioms of various kinds of categories enriched over the symmetric monoidal category of abelian groups. Abelian categories are sometimes called AB2 categories, according to the axiom (AB2). AB3 categories are abelian categories possessing arbitrary coproducts. AB5 categories
In mathematics, specifically in category theory, a preadditive category is another name for an Ab-category, i.e., a category that is enriched over the category of abelian groups, . That is, an Ab-category is a category such that every hom-set in has the structure of an abelian group, and composition of morphisms is bilinear, in the sense that composition
In mathematics, the category has the abelian groups as objects and group homomorphisms as morphisms. This is the prototype of an abelian category: indeed, every small abelian category can be embedded in .
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$135K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for climate science contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $7 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 11%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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