Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming GCT: Super Rapid & Blitz Poland 2026 | Rapid match, scheduled for May 6, 2026 between Maxime Vachier-Lagrave and Javokhir Sindarov.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave vs. Javokhir Sindarov) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Javokhir Sindarov | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, the French grandmaster ranked around 10th globally, faces Javokhir Sindarov, the Uzbek prodigy currently in the 2700+ rating bracket, in a rapid chess encounter during the Grand Chess Tour's Poland event in May 2026. The match forms part of the tournament's round-six pairings, where both players will compete in rapid time controls (typically 25 minutes plus increment). Current market pricing reflects near-certainty that this fixture will occur as scheduled, with Polymarket's order book showing negligible liquidity at prices suggesting meaningful doubt.
Historical precedent from prior GCT editions demonstrates that scheduled rapid and blitz matches rarely fail to materialise once tournament draws are published and players arrive on-site. Cancellations typically stem from player withdrawals due to illness or family emergencies rather than administrative issues. Vachier-Lagrave has maintained consistent GCT participation over recent years, whilst Sindarov's inclusion signals his rising prominence within elite circuits. The 100% implied probability reflects standard settlement assumptions: both players are established tour regulars with no recent pattern of last-minute absences.
Traders should monitor official GCT communications regarding the tournament schedule, any player health announcements in the weeks preceding May 6, and confirmation of final pairings closer to the event date. The settlement window closes shortly after the scheduled round conclusion, leaving minimal window for dispute. Fixture confirmation typically arrives 2–3 weeks before play begins, providing a natural checkpoint for reassessing market assumptions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://lichess.org/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Maxime Vachier-Lagrave vs. Javokhir Sindarov - GCT: Super Rapid & Blitz Poland 2026 | Rapid (Round 6" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for chess contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://lichess.org/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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