Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 50-60B | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| 80-90B | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| 90-100B | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| 120B+ | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 60-70B | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| 100-110B | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| <40B | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| 110-120B | 4% YES | 97% NO |
SpaceX has not yet filed for an initial public offering, though founder Elon Musk has indicated the company could pursue one after achieving sustained profitability and reducing financial risk from its Starship development programme. The company's current valuation sits around $180 billion based on secondary market transactions, making it one of the world's most valuable private firms. Any IPO would likely rank among the largest in recent history, though the exact proceeds would depend on pricing, market conditions at the time of launch, and the percentage of shares the company chooses to sell.
Comparable aerospace and defence IPOs provide limited direct precedent given SpaceX's scale and business model. Blue Origin remains private, whilst Virgin Galactic's 2019 SPAC merger raised approximately $800 million at pricing. Axiom Space's 2023 SPAC transaction valued the company at $2.4 billion. SpaceX's revenue base—estimated at $5–6 billion annually—and dominant position in commercial launch services suggest substantially larger proceeds if it proceeds to market, though the current 41% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about timing and execution.
Traders should monitor regulatory developments affecting commercial space operations, quarterly updates on Starship testing progress, and any public statements from Musk regarding IPO timing. Recent geopolitical tensions and increased U.S. government spending on space capabilities could accelerate the timeline, whilst market volatility or broader technology sector downturns could delay proceedings. SEC filings and investor presentations, when they emerge, will provide concrete information on proposed offering size and valuation expectations.
Before settling on the 2018 Starship design, SpaceX successively presented a number of reusable super-heavy lift vehicle proposals. These preliminary spacecraft designs were known under various names.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$139K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for business contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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