Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical. Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Critical Discord Incident by June 30? | 15% YES | 85% NO |
Discord's status page classifies incidents by severity, with Critical (red) incidents representing the most severe disruptions to service. The market settles Yes if Discord publishes any incident meeting this threshold before 30 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 15% probability, reflecting expectations that such a significant outage remains unlikely over an 18-month window.
Discord has experienced relatively few Critical incidents in recent years relative to its scale, serving over 200 million monthly active users. The platform's infrastructure has matured considerably since its early years, with distributed systems designed to prevent widespread outages. Historical precedent suggests Critical incidents occur sporadically rather than predictably—Discord's last major incident of note was a brief outage in March 2022, though the company has maintained strong uptime since then. The 15% probability reflects this baseline of operational reliability whilst acknowledging that no system is immune to infrastructure failures, security breaches, or cascading technical failures.
Traders should monitor Discord's infrastructure announcements, particularly around capacity expansions or architectural changes that might introduce risk. The company's dependency on cloud providers and third-party services creates potential failure points; any significant incidents at major cloud infrastructure providers could propagate to Discord. Additionally, Discord's ongoing feature expansion and integration with gaming platforms and enterprise tools increases system complexity. Regulatory developments affecting content moderation or data handling could also trigger classified incidents if they necessitate rapid platform changes.
Critical discourse analysis (CDA) is an approach to the study of discourse that views language as a form of social practice. CDA combines critique of discourse with an explanation of how it figures in and contributes to the existing social reality, as a basis for action to change the social reality in various respects. Scholars working in the tradition of CD
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Critical Discord Incident by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$464 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for business contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $22 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 15%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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