Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on Applied Aerospace & Defense's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled for June 3 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $3.25B–$3.75B | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| $4.25B–$4.75B | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| <$2.75B | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| $3.75B–$4.25B | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| $5.25B+ | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| $2.75B–$3.25B | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| $4.75B–$5.25B | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| No IPO before August 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Applied Aerospace & Defence is scheduled to list on public markets on 3 June 2026, with settlement of this market contingent on the company's market capitalisation at the closing price on its first trading day. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 41% implied probability, suggesting meaningful uncertainty around whether the IPO will proceed as scheduled and, if it does, what valuation the market will assign. The settlement window closes on 3 June at 16:00 ET, with a fallback resolution to "No IPO before August 2026" should the listing not occur by 31 July.
Comparable aerospace and defence IPOs provide context for reading current pricing. Axiom Space's 2023 SPAC merger valued the orbital station developer at approximately $2.7 billion; Relativity Space's 2023 SPAC transaction valued the 3D-printed rocket manufacturer at $4.2 billion. More recently, Axiom's post-IPO trading has reflected volatility typical of capital-intensive defence contractors dependent on government contracts and long development cycles. Applied Aerospace & Defence's valuation will likely hinge on its revenue visibility, customer concentration and competitive positioning within the fragmented aerospace supply base.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding the IPO roadshow, any regulatory delays or amendments to the S-1 filing, and broader market conditions affecting defence sector appetite. Recent volatility in defence stocks and equity market sentiment will influence opening-day pricing. The company's customer base—whether primarily commercial aviation, government contracts or both—will materially affect institutional demand and opening valuations.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Applied Aerospace & Defense IPO Closing Market Cap" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$29K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for business contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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