Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming 2. Bundesliga game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Magdeburg.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1. FC Magdeburg | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Holstein Kiel | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Holstein Kiel will face 1. FC Magdeburg in a 2. Bundesliga fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing this event at 100% implied probability, indicating that traders are treating the match as certain to occur as scheduled. This extreme pricing typically reflects either a technical market state—such as minimal liquidity at the extremes—or consensus that no material obstacles to fixture completion exist at this stage of the season.
Second-tier German football matches rarely settle as "no" outcomes; historical precedent shows that fixture cancellations or postponements in the 2. Bundesliga occur primarily due to severe weather, security incidents, or administrative sanctions rather than routine circumstances. With settlement occurring after the final whistle on match day, the 100% probability reflects the baseline expectation that both clubs will field teams and the referee will oversee ninety minutes of play. Comparable late-season fixtures in prior years have proceeded without disruption in the vast majority of cases.
Traders monitoring this market should track team news regarding injuries or suspensions that might affect squad availability, though such developments would not alter settlement conditions. Fixture confirmation typically occurs in official DFL communications weeks prior to match day. Weather forecasts for the Kiel region in early May and any late-season disciplinary actions against either club represent the primary catalysts that could shift market pricing materially from current levels, though the probability of such disruptions remains low.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$121K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for bundesliga 2 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $120K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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