Trade: Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?

Market context

Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) operates with eleven justices who serve until mandatory retirement at age 75. Removal through impeachment or a trial for crimes of responsibility represents an exceptionally rare outcome in Brazilian constitutional history. The current 14% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the low baseline frequency of such proceedings reaching completion and resulting in permanent removal, balanced against the court's elevated political salience in recent years.

Historical precedent provides limited guidance. No STF justice has been successfully removed through impeachment since the 1988 Constitution took effect. The impeachment process requires a two-thirds majority in the Chamber of Deputies to initiate proceedings, followed by trial in the Senate, creating a high procedural threshold. Crimes of responsibility trials, handled separately, have similarly resulted in no permanent removals of sitting justices. The court's institutional independence and the political costs of removing a justice have historically insulated members from successful removal attempts, even during periods of significant institutional conflict.

Current catalysts centre on ongoing investigations and political tensions. Justice Alexandre de Moraes faces persistent criticism from right-wing political figures and media outlets regarding his conduct in cases involving election security and January 2023 unrest allegations. However, formal impeachment proceedings require congressional initiation, and the current composition of the Chamber of Deputies lacks the political consensus necessary to advance such measures. The settlement window extends through 31 December 2026, capturing the final year of President Lula's term, when institutional pressures may shift.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 14% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $714 if YES resolves true — a 614% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$67K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for brazil contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.

The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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