Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What will the Bitcoin implied volatility index hit by May 31?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 60 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| ↑ 45 | 75% YES | 26% NO |
| ↓ 30 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| ↑ 50 | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| ↓ 35 | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| ↓ 25 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Bitcoin's implied volatility index measures expected price swings over a rolling 30-day window, derived from options market pricing. The question asks whether this metric will reach a specific threshold by 31 May 2026. Currently, Polymarket's order book reflects an 8% probability for a YES settlement, indicating traders assess a low likelihood of such a spike occurring within the next six months.
Historical context shows Bitcoin's implied volatility typically ranges between 40 and 80 annualised percentage points during normal market conditions, with spikes above 100 occurring during acute stress events—major exchange failures, regulatory crackdowns, or macroeconomic shocks. The 2020 March pandemic crash saw volatility exceed 150, whilst the 2022 FTX collapse drove similar extremes. The current 8% probability suggests the market is pricing in a roughly one-in-twelve chance of conditions severe enough to trigger such elevated readings by late May.
Key catalysts include US Federal Reserve policy announcements, which influence risk appetite across crypto markets, and any significant regulatory developments from the SEC or international bodies. Bitcoin's spot exchange-traded fund flows, now substantial enough to move markets, could amplify volatility if large institutional positions unwind. Geopolitical tensions affecting broader financial markets and unexpected cryptocurrency exchange or custody incidents remain tail-risk triggers. The settlement window extends into June, giving traders visibility through the first half of 2026, though most price discovery occurs in the weeks immediately preceding expiry.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will the Bitcoin implied volatility index hit by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$279 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $190 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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