Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a quantum-resistant protocol upgrade is activated on the Bitcoin mainnet. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, the upgrade must satisfy all of the following: - The upgrade must constitute a consensus-layer change to the Bitcoin protocol that is live and enforced on the Bitcoin mainnet by the deadline. Proposals, drafts, code releases, miner signaling, node adoption, or activation on testnets or alternative networks do not qualify on their own. - The upgrade must enable the use of a post-quantum-secure signature scheme for standard Bitcoin transactions on the Bitcoin mainnet.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026? | 9% YES | 91% NO |
Bitcoin's protocol would require a consensus-layer upgrade to incorporate post-quantum cryptographic signatures before the end of 2026. Such an upgrade would fundamentally alter how transactions are validated and signed on the mainnet, representing one of the most significant technical changes in Bitcoin's history. The deadline allows roughly two years for proposal, development, testing, activation signalling, and deployment across the network's infrastructure.
The 7% implied probability reflects the substantial technical and coordination hurdles involved. Bitcoin's upgrade cycle has historically moved slowly: SegWit took roughly three years from proposal to mainnet activation, whilst Taproot required five years. Quantum computing remains a distant threat to elliptic-curve cryptography, with no consensus on timeline or severity, reducing urgency among developers and miners. No active Bitcoin Improvement Proposal for quantum-resistant signatures has achieved widespread developer backing as of late 2024, and the cryptographic standards themselves (NIST's post-quantum algorithms) only finalised their initial selections in August 2022.
Traders should monitor Bitcoin Core development discussions and any formal BIP submissions proposing quantum-resistant signature schemes. Recent announcements from major mining pools or institutional participants endorsing such work could shift probability materially. The technical feasibility of retrofitting quantum-resistant signatures without breaking existing wallet infrastructure remains contested among developers. Activation would require supermajority miner signalling and broad node adoption, both historically difficult to achieve on compressed timelines. Current order book pricing suggests the market views a 2026 implementation as unlikely given these dependencies.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $38 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 9%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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