Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 76,200 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 76,600 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 77,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 77,400 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 77,800 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 78,600 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 79,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 79,400 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on Bitcoin's closing price at 2am ET on 2 May 2026, using the one-hour candle close from Binance's BTC/USDT pair. The 100% implied probability reflects either an exceptionally high strike price relative to current spot levels, or a market structure where the threshold sits well below anticipated trading ranges for that date. Current order book depth on Polymarket will show whether this probability stems from genuine conviction or sparse liquidity at extreme price levels.
Bitcoin's volatility patterns suggest that predicting intraday price action eighteen months forward carries substantial uncertainty. Historical precedent shows that single-hour candle closes frequently deviate from daily or weekly trends, particularly during low-volume periods like 2am ET. Comparable markets on similar timeframes have demonstrated that even modest strike prices can generate meaningful probability shifts when external catalysts emerge—regulatory announcements, macroeconomic data, or significant institutional flows can reshape price expectations substantially.
Traders should monitor scheduled Federal Reserve communications, major economic releases, and cryptocurrency regulatory developments through early 2026, as these typically drive directional conviction in Bitcoin markets. The settlement window closes at 6am ET, providing a four-hour buffer after the resolution candle closes, which allows for price discovery but limits opportunities to react to late-breaking news. Binance's spot market liquidity at that hour will ultimately determine execution reality, though the BTC/USDT pair maintains consistent depth across most trading sessions.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin above ___ on May 2, 2AM ET?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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