Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 50+ bps decrease | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| 25 bps decrease | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| No change | 70% YES | 31% NO |
| 25 bps increase | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| 50+ bps increase | 23% YES | 78% NO |
The Bank of Mexico's monetary policy committee will convene on 6 August 2026 to decide whether to adjust the overnight interbank interest rate target. The market currently prices a 38% probability of a rate change, reflecting uncertainty about whether Banxico will hold steady or move in either direction. The settlement hinges on the official announcement from that meeting, with any basis point shift—whether an increase or decrease—resolving the market as YES.
Banxico's recent decisions provide context for interpreting current odds. Between 2022 and 2023, the central bank executed an aggressive tightening cycle, raising rates from near-zero to over 10% in response to inflation pressures. By mid-2024, the committee had begun a gradual easing cycle as inflation moderated towards its 3% target. The 38% probability suggests traders anticipate roughly a two-in-five chance of movement in August 2026, consistent with a central bank in a measured adjustment phase rather than one signalling imminent or dramatic shifts.
Traders should monitor inflation data releases in the months preceding the August meeting, particularly the National Institute of Statistics and Geography's consumer price reports, which directly influence Banxico's forward guidance. Currency movements and US Federal Reserve signals also matter substantially, given the peso's sensitivity to interest rate differentials and capital flows. The committee's previous statements and any interim communications will telegraph its stance. Polymarket's order book will tighten as the meeting approaches and fresh economic data arrives, with the current 38% reflecting the dispersed expectations of active traders today.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bank of Mexico Decision in August?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$568 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for banxico contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $568 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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