Trade: Evo Morales arrested by May 31
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $3K
- Total Volume
- $10K
- 24h Volume
- $146
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| Evo Morales arrested by May 31 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
Market context
Evo Morales, Bolivia's president from 2006 to 2019, has faced multiple legal challenges since his ousting. He currently resides in Argentina after fleeing Bolivia in 2019 following disputed election results. Bolivian authorities have pursued various charges against him, including electoral fraud and sedition related to the 2019 crisis and subsequent political mobilisation. The question of whether he will be arrested or detained by May 31, 2026, hinges on enforcement capacity, jurisdictional complications, and the evolving political landscape in Bolivia.
Comparable cases involving Latin American former leaders show mixed outcomes. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faced arrest and imprisonment in Brazil before judicial reversal, whilst others have evaded capture through exile or political shifts. Morales' situation differs in that he remains outside Bolivia's borders, making arrest contingent on either his return, extradition proceedings, or international law enforcement action. The 18% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects scepticism about these mechanisms materialising within the timeframe, though legal developments in Bolivia could shift this assessment.
Key catalysts include changes in Bolivia's political administration, shifts in Argentina's willingness to shelter Morales, or new indictments that might trigger extradition requests. Recent reporting has documented ongoing tensions between Morales and current Bolivian leadership, though concrete enforcement actions remain limited. Traders should monitor announcements from Bolivia's judiciary, diplomatic communications between Buenos Aires and La Paz, and any statements from Morales regarding potential return to Bolivia.
Wikipedia Context
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Evo MoralesJuan Evo Morales Ayma is a Bolivian politician, trade union organizer, and former cocalero who served as the 65th president of Bolivia from 2006 to 2019. Widely regarded as the country's first president to come from its indigenous population, his administration worked towards the implementation of left-wing policies, focusing on safeguarding the legal rights
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Evo Morales and the Catholic ChurchThe administration of former Bolivian president Evo Morales maintained a strained relationship with the Bolivian hierarchy of the Roman Catholic Church. This relationship posed a problem for Morales, as polls taken in the early 2000s indicated that about seven million of the nine million Bolivians adhered to the Roman Catholic faith.
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Evo Morales grounding incidentOn 1 July 2013, president Evo Morales of Bolivia, who had been attending a conference of gas-exporting countries in Russia, gave an interview to the RT television network in which he appeared predisposed to offer asylum to Edward Snowden. The day after his TV interview, Morales's Dassault Falcon 900 FAB-001, carrying him back to La Paz from Moscow, took off
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2019 Bolivian political crisisThe 2019 Bolivian political crisis was a period of intense political upheaval and unrest in Bolivia that followed the disputed 2019 Bolivian general election, in which incumbent President Evo Morales was initially declared the winner. Morales had run for a controversial fourth term despite having recently lost a constitutional referendum to remove presidenti
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Evo Morales arrested by May 31" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 14% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $714 if YES resolves true — a 614% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$10K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for arrest contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $146 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Evo Morales arrested by May 31"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 14%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Evo Morales arrested by May 31"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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