Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is named to the 2025-26 All-Defensive Second Team. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If no official All-Defensive Second Team is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Scottie Barnes | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Jaylen Brown | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Stephon Castle | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| OG Anunoby | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Ausar Thompson | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Derrick White | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Dyson Daniels | 50% YES | 51% NO |
The NBA's All-Defensive awards are announced each June following the regular season and playoffs. The All-Defensive Second Team comprises five players selected by a voting panel of media members and coaches, recognising elite perimeter and interior defenders who fall just below the First Team tier. Selection depends on sustained defensive performance throughout the season, visibility in national broadcasts, and voter consensus—factors that create meaningful uncertainty even for established defensive anchors.
Historical precedent shows that All-Defensive Second Team selection remains competitive and volatile. Players with strong defensive metrics can miss selection due to voter fatigue, positional logjams, or narrative preference for First Team candidates. For instance, defenders who transition teams mid-season or experience injury-affected campaigns often see their voting share decline despite maintained defensive impact. The current 50% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the listed player will sustain the defensive profile, health status, and voter recognition required for selection by late June 2026.
Traders should monitor the player's defensive statistics (steals, blocks, defensive rating), team performance trajectory, and any mid-season trades that might affect voting visibility. The NBA typically announces All-Defensive selections in early June, though the formal voting window closes in late May. Injury reports and roster changes through the trade deadline in February 2026 will meaningfully influence selection odds, as will the player's playoff performance if their team advances. Recent defensive award voting has shown increased emphasis on advanced metrics alongside traditional counting stats, potentially reshaping voter preferences from previous seasons.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NBA: 2025-26 All-Defensive Second Team" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$111 in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for all defensive team contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $111 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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