Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1550 | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| 1575 | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| 1525 | 61% YES | 39% NO |
| 1600 | 33% YES | 68% NO |
The Chatbot Arena leaderboard tracks mathematical reasoning performance across large language models through head-to-head comparisons. The market tests whether any model will achieve a specified score threshold by year-end 2026, with resolution determined by the "Math" category on Arena.ai's text leaderboard using style-control-off settings. The 56% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects moderate confidence in this outcome, suggesting traders view the threshold as achievable but not certain within the two-year window.
Historical progression on mathematical benchmarks shows consistent improvement across model generations. GPT-4 and Claude 3 variants have demonstrated substantial gains in mathematical reasoning over their predecessors, with each major release typically advancing scores by 5–15 percentage points on standardised tests. However, the rate of improvement has shown signs of plateauing on certain benchmarks, and the specific threshold in this market determines whether current trajectories suffice. Comparable markets on model capability milestones have typically resolved affirmatively when thresholds align with demonstrated capability trends, though ambitious targets have occasionally failed.
Key catalysts include scheduled model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, and other labs through 2026, alongside quarterly leaderboard updates that reveal performance trajectories. Recent announcements regarding reasoning-focused model variants suggest continued investment in mathematical capability development. The dependency on Arena.ai's methodology remaining stable and accessible through the resolution window presents a secondary consideration; any significant changes to leaderboard structure or evaluation protocols could affect settlement clarity. Traders should monitor both capability announcements and leaderboard volatility as primary signals.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ai contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $13 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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