Trade: How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $12K
- Total Volume
- $162K
- 24h Volume
- $337
- Open Interest
- $20K
Market outcomes
| 7 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| 11 | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| 6 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| 10 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| ≤5 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 9 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 8 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 12+ | 17% YES | 83% NO |
Market context
Waymo's autonomous ride-hailing service must expand from its current operating cities to reach a threshold that the market has priced at just 8% probability by mid-2026. As of late 2024, Waymo operates in San Francisco, Phoenix, and Los Angeles through its Waymo One app, with limited availability in certain zones. The market requires the company to be publicly available in additional distinct cities—whether through direct Waymo One deployment or via Uber integration—to resolve affirmatively.
Historical expansion timelines for autonomous vehicle services suggest measured growth constrained by regulatory approval, infrastructure readiness, and operational scaling. Cruise's collapse in 2023 and subsequent industry retrenchment demonstrated how quickly autonomous programmes can stall. Waymo's own expansion has proceeded cautiously: Phoenix operations began in 2020, San Francisco in 2023, and Los Angeles in 2024. This roughly one-city-per-year cadence, combined with regulatory hurdles in new jurisdictions, informs the current 8% probability, which implies traders expect fewer than two additional cities by June 2026.
Key catalysts include Waymo's announced expansion plans, regulatory decisions in target cities, and partnership developments with Uber. The company has signalled interest in cities including Austin, Miami, and Atlanta, though timelines remain uncertain. Quarterly earnings calls and investor updates typically provide guidance on expansion schedules. Regulatory approvals in California and Arizona have historically taken 12–18 months; comparable timelines in new states would compress the window significantly. Any major operational incidents or regulatory setbacks could further constrain expansion velocity.
Wikipedia Context
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Mayan citiesMaya cities were the centres of population of the pre-Columbian Maya civilization of Mesoamerica. They served the specialised roles of administration, commerce, manufacturing and religion that characterised ancient cities worldwide. Maya cities tended to be more dispersed than cities in other societies, even within Mesoamerica, as a result of adaptation to a
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List of municipalities in MaineMaine is a state located in the Northeastern United States. According to the 2020 United States census, Maine is the 9th least populous state, with 1,372,247 inhabitants, and the 12th smallest by land area, spanning 30,842.92 square miles (79,882.8 km2). Maine is divided into 16 counties and contains 482 municipalities consisting of cities, towns, and planta
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Maps: CitiesMaps: Cities is a 1993 role-playing supplement published by Flying Buffalo.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$162K in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for ai contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $337 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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