Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire Anthropic by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where Anthropic is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between Anthropic and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Anthropic and/or its leadership, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Anthropic acquired before 2027? | 5% YES | 95% NO |
Anthropic, the AI safety-focused company founded in 2021, could be acquired by another entity before the end of 2026. The market currently prices this scenario at 5% probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting trader conviction that an outright acquisition agreement remains unlikely within the next two years, despite the company's significant valuation and strategic importance in the AI sector.
Comparable precedent suggests acquisition likelihood depends heavily on financial distress or strategic desperation rather than normal market conditions. Major AI firms including OpenAI, xAI, and Mistral have all raised substantial capital at high valuations without triggering acquisition interest, whilst established tech acquisitions of AI-adjacent companies typically occur at earlier stages or when acquirers perceive existential competitive threats. Anthropic's recent $5 billion funding round in September 2024 at a reported $20 billion valuation signals investor confidence in independence rather than distress, a pattern that typically reduces near-term acquisition probability.
Key catalysts include major shifts in Anthropic's financial position, regulatory changes affecting AI development costs, or strategic announcements from potential acquirers like Google, Amazon, or Microsoft regarding their AI infrastructure priorities. Traders should monitor quarterly funding announcements, leadership statements on independence, and broader consolidation trends in the AI sector. The settlement window's December 2026 deadline means any agreement—whether announced or merely reached—would need to surface within approximately 24 months, a compressed timeframe for the typically lengthy acquisition process in technology sectors.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Anthropic acquired before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$18K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for ai contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $64 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 5%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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