Trade: Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran participates in any official game at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement from FIFA and/or the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran of the nation’s removal or withdrawal from the 2026 FIFA World Cup will immediately resolve this market "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA and/or the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $10K
- Total Volume
- $123K
- 24h Volume
- $3K
- Open Interest
- $55K
Market outcomes
| Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 86% YES | 14% NO |
Market context
Iran's participation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup hinges on qualification through the Asian confederation's preliminary rounds and avoiding any formal removal or withdrawal by FIFA or the Iranian Football Federation. The tournament takes place across the United States, Canada and Mexico in June–July 2026, with Iran needing to progress through the final qualifying stage (third round) of AFC qualifying, which runs through 2025. The 87% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong market confidence in Iran's qualification, though this sits notably above historical precedent for Iranian participation rates.
Iran has qualified for five of the last six World Cups (2006, 2014, 2018, 2022), establishing a reliable track record of reaching the tournament stage. However, the nation has faced geopolitical pressures affecting participation; most recently, Iran's 2022 campaign occurred amid domestic unrest. The current probability pricing suggests traders view another qualification as highly probable given Iran's consistent performance in Asian qualifying rounds, where they typically rank among the stronger confederations.
Traders should monitor Iran's performance in the third qualifying round beginning in 2024, with matches against regional competitors determining advancement. Announcements from FIFA regarding sanctions or the Iranian Football Federation regarding withdrawal would immediately trigger resolution. Recent reporting from AFC qualifying fixtures will provide concrete data on Iran's trajectory, though the market's current pricing indicates minimal perceived risk of either disqualification or voluntary withdrawal before the 2026 tournament.
Wikipedia Context
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2003 Iran Ilyushin Il-76 crashOn 19 February 2003, an Ilyushin Il-76 crashed in mountainous terrain near Kerman in Iran. The Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps aircraft, registration 15-2280, was flying from Zahedan to Kerman when it crashed 35 kilometres southeast of Kerman. The aircraft was carrying members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, a special force that
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Iran PartyThe Iran Party is a socialist and nationalist party in Iran. Founded in 1941, it is described as the "backbone of the National Front", the leading umbrella organization of Iranian nationalists established in 1949. The party's total membership has never exceeded the several hundred figure.
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Iran Language Institute
The Iran Language Institute, abbreviated as ILI is a state-owned, non-profit organization founded in 1979 in Iran with the national mission of developing foreign language learning. It is a subsidiary of Institute for the Intellectual Development. The headquarters of this institute is located in the country's capital, Tehran. The ILI, in 2012 having around 20
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List of accidents and incidents involving airliners by location
This list of accidents and incidents on airliners by location summarizes airline accidents by state location, airline company with flight number, date, and cause. It is also available groupedby year as List of accidents and incidents involving commercial aircraft; by airline; by category.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 86% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $116 if YES resolves true — a 16% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$123K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for 2026 fifa world cup contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 86%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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