Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <1.00 | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| 1.00-1.10 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| 1.10-1.20 | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| 1.20-1.30 | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| 1.30-1.40 | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| 1.40-1.50 | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| 1.50-1.60 | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| 1.60-1.70 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
This market settles on the XRP/USDT closing price at noon ET on 20 May 2026, using Binance's 1-minute candle data. The 21% implied probability reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing in a relatively low likelihood of the target price range resolving affirmatively. Settlement hinges on a single data point—the close of that specific candle—with no discretion for disputes or alternative sources.
XRP has historically exhibited substantial intraday volatility, particularly around regulatory announcements and macroeconomic shifts affecting risk appetite. The current probability assessment sits within the range typical for crypto assets trading 12–18 months forward, where uncertainty compounds across multiple potential catalysts. Comparable markets for other major altcoins at similar time horizons have shown that single-day price targets often carry low probabilities unless they align with existing technical support or resistance levels.
Traders monitoring this contract should track developments in Ripple's regulatory standing, particularly any SEC litigation outcomes or policy clarifications affecting XRP's classification. Broader cryptocurrency market conditions—Bitcoin's trajectory, Federal Reserve policy signals, and institutional adoption trends—will substantially influence XRP's price action heading into May 2026. Binance's operational status and any changes to XRP/USDT trading pairs would also affect settlement mechanics, though such disruptions remain uncommon for major trading pairs.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP price on May 20?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $49K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for xrp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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