Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 0.80 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 0.90 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1.10 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1.20 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1.30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.40 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.50 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.80 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the Binance XRP/USDT pair's closing price at noon ET on 2 June 2026, requiring the one-minute candle to close above a specified threshold. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, suggesting traders are pricing in an extremely high likelihood of XRP trading above the threshold at that specific time and venue. Settlement depends on Binance's recorded data for that single minute candle, making execution risk and exchange-specific price dynamics material considerations.
XRP has historically exhibited volatility clustering around regulatory announcements and broader cryptocurrency market movements, particularly following SEC developments or statements from Ripple. The 18-month timeframe to June 2026 encompasses multiple potential catalysts, including ongoing litigation outcomes, potential regulatory clarity on token classification, and macroeconomic shifts affecting risk appetite. Comparable one-minute candle markets on Polymarket have shown that extreme probabilities (95%+) often reflect either very wide thresholds relative to current spot prices or consensus around directional conviction, though execution-level precision introduces execution risk that can occasionally surprise even high-confidence positions.
Traders should monitor Ripple's quarterly announcements, any SEC regulatory developments, and broader cryptocurrency market structure changes through early 2026. The specificity of settlement—a single Binance candle at noon ET—means that even modest intraday volatility or flash movements could influence outcome, distinguishing this from longer-window price targets. Current market depth and order book positioning will reveal whether the 100% probability reflects genuine consensus or thin liquidity at extreme odds.
The XRP Ledger (XRPL), also called the Ripple Protocol, is a cryptocurrency platform launched in 2012 by Ripple Labs. The XRPL employs the native cryptocurrency known as XRP, and supports tokens, cryptocurrency or other units of value such as frequent flyer miles or mobile minutes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP above 2026 on June 2?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$169K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for xrp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $151K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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