Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 0.80 | 99% YES | 2% NO |
| 0.90 | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| 1.00 | 67% YES | 33% NO |
| 1.10 | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| 1.20 | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| 1.30 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 1.40 | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| 1.50 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
This market settles on the Binance XRP/USDT pair's 1-minute candle close at noon ET on 10 June 2026. The 98% implied probability reflects confidence that XRP will trade above a specified threshold at that precise moment. The settlement mechanism is straightforward: Binance's published candle data for that timestamp determines the outcome, with no discretion or alternative price sources. Current order book depth on Polymarket shows the probability has been formed through sustained buying pressure on the YES side, suggesting traders view the threshold as conservative relative to expected price action over the next eighteen months.
Historical precedent for XRP price predictions at similar timeframes shows considerable volatility around regulatory announcements and macroeconomic shifts. The 2023–2024 period demonstrated that XRP responds sharply to US Securities and Exchange Commission guidance and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment. A 98% probability typically emerges when the strike price sits substantially below consensus price forecasts, leaving minimal room for downside scenarios. Traders should note that such elevated probabilities often reflect asymmetric payoff structures rather than certainty of outcome.
Key catalysts through June 2026 include potential regulatory clarity on XRP's classification, developments in Ripple's institutional partnerships, and broader cryptocurrency market cycles. Bitcoin's trajectory will likely influence XRP correlation patterns. The specific noon ET timestamp introduces microstructure risk: intraday volatility, exchange liquidity conditions, and order flow dynamics at that exact moment could create execution variance. Traders should consider whether the probability adequately compensates for timing precision and whether macro conditions might shift the underlying asset's range substantially.
The XRP Ledger (XRPL), also called the Ripple Protocol, is a cryptocurrency platform launched in 2012 by Ripple Labs. The XRPL employs the native cryptocurrency known as XRP, and supports tokens, cryptocurrency or other units of value such as frequent flyer miles or mobile minutes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP above 2026 on June 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $89K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for xrp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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