Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yoon Suk Yeol is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for charges related to the 2024 South Korean political crisis, including but not limited to allegations of insurrection, abuse of power, or other criminal acts stemming from his martial law declaration and related subsequent actions by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through 2026 regardless of whether Yoon's initial sentencing includes prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Yoon be sentenced to prison before 2027? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol faces multiple criminal charges stemming from his December 2024 martial law declaration, which triggered a constitutional crisis and his subsequent impeachment. The charges include insurrection, abuse of power, and related offences connected to his attempt to impose emergency military rule. Yoon has been arrested, indicted, and is currently undergoing trial in the Seoul Central District Court, with proceedings expected to extend through 2025 and into 2026. The market's 100% implied probability reflects the advanced stage of judicial proceedings and the substantial evidence presented by prosecutors.
South Korean presidential impeachment cases typically result in criminal convictions. Former President Park Geun-hye was convicted in 2017 and sentenced to 24 years imprisonment on corruption charges, whilst former President Lee Myung-bak received a 17-year sentence in 2018 for bribery and embezzlement. Both cases proceeded through the courts despite appeals and political controversy. The insurrection charge against Yoon carries particular weight; South Korean courts have historically treated such charges seriously, though insurrection convictions remain relatively rare in modern Korean jurisprudence.
Key catalysts include the Seoul court's verdict announcement, expected sometime in late 2025 or early 2026, and any interim rulings on bail or detention status. The Constitutional Court's separate impeachment trial, which concluded in March 2023, established precedent for rapid judicial processing of presidential cases. Traders should monitor court scheduling announcements and prosecution statements regarding evidence presentation. Any acquittal or conviction on specific charges would materially shift market expectations, as would unexpected procedural delays affecting the timeline before the December 2026 settlement deadline.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Yoon be sentenced to prison before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$72K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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