Trade: Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $19K
- Total Volume
- $216K
- 24h Volume
- $427
- Open Interest
- $19K
Market outcomes
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Market context
Iran's next presidential election is scheduled for June 2025, following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May 2024. The Guardian Council, which oversees elections, confirmed the June 2025 date in accordance with Iran's constitutional requirement to hold presidential elections within fifty days of a vacancy. The current 2% probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the market's assessment that voting will occur on or before the scheduled date, with the implied 98% probability on "No" suggesting traders expect the election to proceed as planned within the settlement window.
Iran has held presidential elections consistently since 1979, with only one significant postponement during the 1980–88 Iran–Iraq War. The Guardian Council maintains tight control over electoral timing and candidate vetting, making arbitrary delays uncommon once a date is officially set. Historical precedent suggests that once Iran announces an election date through formal channels, the probability of cancellation or substantial postponement is low. The 2% YES probability reflects the tail risk of extraordinary circumstances—such as major security crises, constitutional changes, or unforeseen institutional disruptions—rather than baseline expectations.
Traders should monitor announcements from Iran's Interior Ministry and Guardian Council regarding candidate registration deadlines, typically held weeks before voting. Any official statement altering or confirming the June 2025 election date would be a primary catalyst. Secondary signals include statements from Iranian officials about domestic stability and international tensions affecting governance capacity. The settlement window extends to June 30, 2026, providing a twelve-month buffer beyond the scheduled election date.
Wikipedia Context
-
Iran hostage crisisThe Iran hostage crisis began on November 4, 1979, when 66 Americans, including diplomats and other civilian personnel, were taken hostage at the Embassy of the United States in Tehran, with 52 of them being held until January 20, 1981. The incident occurred after the Muslim Student Followers of the Imam's Line stormed and occupied the building in the months
-
Iran KhodroIran Khodro, branded as IKCO, is an Iranian automaker headquartered in Tehran. IKCO was founded in 1962 as Iran National. The public company manufactures vehicles, including Samand, Peugeot and Renault cars, and trucks, minibuses and buses. As of 2009, it produced 688,000 passenger cars per year.
-
Iran hostage crisis negotiationsThroughout 1980, Iran and the United States engaged in negotiations to end the Iran hostage crisis, which began in November 1979. Iranian demands most notably included the United States' extradition of Iran's former king Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who had been overthrown by the Iranian Revolution before being granted asylum by the Carter administration for cance
-
Iran Khodro DieselIran Khodro Diesel Company is manufacturer of commercial vehicles in the Iranian market and in the market of several other countries with political agreements in the Middle East, CIS and Africa with half a century experience under license of Daimler-Benz of Germany. Iran Khodro Diesel Company has almost 80% of bus and about 70% of the local market share.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 2% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $5000 if YES resolves true — a 4900% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$216K in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $427 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 2%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: